FSV Duisburg 1–3 Cronenberger SC: Result & Stats

FSV Duisburg

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Cronenberger SC

4/3/2022

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - Relegation Round - 1Kunstrasenplatz FSV Duisburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

FSV Duisburg45%

×Draw22%

Cronenberger SC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FSV DuisburgExpected goals in this matchCronenberger SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.65

FSV Duisburg

1.93

Cronenberger SC

1.65

FSV Duisburg creates 17% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 42 away

1.38

creates per match

1.12

2.17

allows per match

2.48

creates per match

FSV Duisburg

1.38

Cronenberger SC

1.12

allows per match

FSV Duisburg

2.17

Cronenberger SC

2.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FSV Duisburg+0.00on par

Cronenberger SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Duisburg ↓

Cronenberger SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

FSV Duisburg or draw

67%

FSV Duisburg or Cronenberger SC

78%

Draw or Cronenberger SC

55%

Winning margin

FSV Duisburg wins by 2+

25%

Cronenberger SC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FSV Duisburg 1+ goals

85%

FSV Duisburg 2+ goals

57%

FSV Duisburg 3+ goals

30%

Cronenberger SC 1+ goals

81%

Cronenberger SC 2+ goals

49%

Cronenberger SC 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

FSV Duisburg (draw refunded)

57%

Cronenberger SC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Duisburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.17 · 40 matches

Cronenberger SC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.48 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Duisburg attack 1.38 + Cronenberger SC defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 1.93

Cronenberger SC attack 1.12 + FSV Duisburg defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FSV Duisburg scores more

45%

level

22%

Cronenberger SC scores more

33%

FSV Duisburg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FSV Duisburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff