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Cronenberger SC vs FSV Duisburg — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Cronenberger SC
Cronenberger SC
FT
2 – 1
FSV Duisburg
FSV Duisburg
10/17/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 9Horst-Neuhoff-Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Cronenberger SC53%
×Draw21%
FSV Duisburg26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cronenberger SC
2.13
FSV Duisburg
1.44

Cronenberger SC creates 48% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 42 away

creates per match

Cronenberger SC
1.56
FSV Duisburg
0.93

allows per match

Cronenberger SC
1.95
FSV Duisburg
2.69

finishing

Cronenberger SC+0.00on par
FSV Duisburg+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cronenberger SC ↓

FSV Duisburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Cronenberger SC or draw
74%
Cronenberger SC or FSV Duisburg
79%
Draw or FSV Duisburg
47%

Winning margin

Cronenberger SC wins by 2+
32%
FSV Duisburg wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cronenberger SC 1+ goals
88%
Cronenberger SC 2+ goals
63%
Cronenberger SC 3+ goals
35%
FSV Duisburg 1+ goals
76%
FSV Duisburg 2+ goals
42%
FSV Duisburg 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Cronenberger SC (draw refunded)
67%
FSV Duisburg (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cronenberger SC at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.95 · 39 matches

FSV Duisburg away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cronenberger SC attack 1.56 + FSV Duisburg defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.13

FSV Duisburg attack 0.93 + Cronenberger SC defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cronenberger SC scores more
53%
level
21%
FSV Duisburg scores more
26%

Cronenberger SC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cronenberger SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cronenberger SC vs FSV Duisburg

Cronenberger SC beat FSV Duisburg 2-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Horst-Neuhoff-Sportplatz in Wuppertal.