FSC Hochegger Dächer 5–0 Frohnleiten

FSC Hochegger Dächer

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Frohnleiten

5/18/2025

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 27GREMSL Parkett GPT Stadion Eggendorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

FSC Hochegger Dächer80%

×Draw12%

Frohnleiten8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FSC Hochegger DächerExpected goals in this matchFrohnleiten

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.29

0.99

FSC Hochegger Dächer

3.29

Frohnleiten

0.99

FSC Hochegger Dächer creates 232% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

2.58

creates per match

0.60

1.38

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

FSC Hochegger Dächer

2.58

Frohnleiten

0.60

allows per match

FSC Hochegger Dächer

1.38

Frohnleiten

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FSC Hochegger Dächer+0.00on par

Frohnleiten+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSC Hochegger Dächer ↓

Frohnleiten →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

FSC Hochegger Dächer or draw

92%

FSC Hochegger Dächer or Frohnleiten

88%

Draw or Frohnleiten

20%

Winning margin

FSC Hochegger Dächer wins by 2+

62%

Frohnleiten wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

FSC Hochegger Dächer 1+ goals

96%

FSC Hochegger Dächer 2+ goals

83%

FSC Hochegger Dächer 3+ goals

62%

Frohnleiten 1+ goals

63%

Frohnleiten 2+ goals

26%

Frohnleiten 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

FSC Hochegger Dächer (draw refunded)

91%

Frohnleiten (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSC Hochegger Dächer at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.38 · 45 matches

Frohnleiten away — creates 0.60, concedes 4.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSC Hochegger Dächer attack 2.58 + Frohnleiten defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.29

Frohnleiten attack 0.60 + FSC Hochegger Dächer defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

FSC Hochegger Dächer scores more

80%

level

12%

Frohnleiten scores more

8%

FSC Hochegger Dächer at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "FSC Hochegger Dächer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff