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Frohnleiten vs FSC Hochegger Dächer — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Frohnleiten
Frohnleiten
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
FSC Hochegger Dächer
FSC Hochegger Dächer
10/18/2024Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 12Franz Feldgrill-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Frohnleiten20%
×Draw20%
FSC Hochegger Dächer60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frohnleiten
1.25
FSC Hochegger Dächer
2.25

FSC Hochegger Dächer creates 80% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 44 away

creates per match

Frohnleiten
0.73
FSC Hochegger Dächer
2.02

allows per match

Frohnleiten
2.47
FSC Hochegger Dächer
1.77

finishing

Frohnleiten+0.00on par
FSC Hochegger Dächer+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frohnleiten ↓

FSC Hochegger Dächer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Frohnleiten or draw
40%
Frohnleiten or FSC Hochegger Dächer
80%
Draw or FSC Hochegger Dächer
80%

Winning margin

Frohnleiten wins by 2+
8%
FSC Hochegger Dächer wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Frohnleiten 1+ goals
71%
Frohnleiten 2+ goals
36%
Frohnleiten 3+ goals
13%
FSC Hochegger Dächer 1+ goals
89%
FSC Hochegger Dächer 2+ goals
65%
FSC Hochegger Dächer 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Frohnleiten (draw refunded)
26%
FSC Hochegger Dächer (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frohnleiten at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

FSC Hochegger Dächer away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.77 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frohnleiten attack 0.73 + FSC Hochegger Dächer defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.25

FSC Hochegger Dächer attack 2.02 + Frohnleiten defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Frohnleiten scores more
20%
level
20%
FSC Hochegger Dächer scores more
60%

FSC Hochegger Dächer at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "FSC Hochegger Dächer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Frohnleiten vs FSC Hochegger Dächer

FSC Hochegger Dächer beat Frohnleiten 3-2 in Landesliga - Steiermark on October 18, 2024.

The match was played at Franz Feldgrill-Stadion in Frohnleiten.