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FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils — Virsliga 2026

FS Jelgava
FS Jelgava
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
5/31/2026VirsligaVirsliga · Round 16Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

FS Jelgava45%
×Draw26%
BFC Daugavpils30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FS Jelgava
1.50
BFC Daugavpils
1.17

FS Jelgava creates 28% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 112 away

creates per match

FS Jelgava
1.14
BFC Daugavpils
0.91

allows per match

FS Jelgava
1.42
BFC Daugavpils
1.86

finishing

FS Jelgava+0.00on par
BFC Daugavpils+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FS Jelgava ↓

BFC Daugavpils →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FS Jelgava or draw
70%
FS Jelgava or BFC Daugavpils
74%
Draw or BFC Daugavpils
55%

Winning margin

FS Jelgava wins by 2+
22%
BFC Daugavpils wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FS Jelgava 1+ goals
78%
FS Jelgava 2+ goals
44%
FS Jelgava 3+ goals
19%
BFC Daugavpils 1+ goals
69%
BFC Daugavpils 2+ goals
33%
BFC Daugavpils 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FS Jelgava (draw refunded)
60%
BFC Daugavpils (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FS Jelgava at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.42 · 65 matches

BFC Daugavpils away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.86 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FS Jelgava attack 1.14 + BFC Daugavpils defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.50

BFC Daugavpils attack 0.91 + FS Jelgava defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FS Jelgava scores more
45%
level
26%
BFC Daugavpils scores more
30%

FS Jelgava at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FS Jelgava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils

FS Jelgava and BFC Daugavpils drew 1-1 in Virsliga on May 31, 2026.

The match was played at Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs in Jelgava.