BFC Daugavpils 1–0 FS Jelgava: Result & Stats

BFC Daugavpils

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FS Jelgava

J. Yakubu 48'

4/16/2026

Virsliga · Round 7Stadions Celtnieks

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

BFC Daugavpils48%

×Draw24%

FS Jelgava27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BFC DaugavpilsExpected goals in this matchFS Jelgava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.17

BFC Daugavpils

1.65

FS Jelgava

1.17

BFC Daugavpils creates 41% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 65 away

1.28

creates per match

0.91

1.42

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

BFC Daugavpils

1.28

FS Jelgava

0.91

allows per match

BFC Daugavpils

1.42

FS Jelgava

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BFC Daugavpils+0.00on par

FS Jelgava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BFC Daugavpils ↓

FS Jelgava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

BFC Daugavpils or draw

73%

BFC Daugavpils or FS Jelgava

76%

Draw or FS Jelgava

52%

Winning margin

BFC Daugavpils wins by 2+

26%

FS Jelgava wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

BFC Daugavpils 1+ goals

81%

BFC Daugavpils 2+ goals

49%

BFC Daugavpils 3+ goals

23%

FS Jelgava 1+ goals

69%

FS Jelgava 2+ goals

33%

FS Jelgava 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

BFC Daugavpils (draw refunded)

64%

FS Jelgava (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BFC Daugavpils at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.42 · 118 matches

FS Jelgava away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.02 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BFC Daugavpils attack 1.28 + FS Jelgava defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.65

FS Jelgava attack 0.91 + BFC Daugavpils defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

BFC Daugavpils scores more

48%

level

24%

FS Jelgava scores more

27%

BFC Daugavpils at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "BFC Daugavpils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

A. Garzha

32'

K. Kurbatov

48'

65'

70'

74'

80'

E. Smaukstelis← A. Janovskis

81'

R. Skrebels

86'

L. Prior

87'

D. Kivinda← M. Sylla

87'

E. Pinaskins← A. Traore

90'

G. Patika← D. Holoubek

BFC

FS

1

Dvorak

7

▼

13

4

26

25

9

▼

Becers

29

Zaleiko

10

▼

24

17

12

37

5

8

34

22

4

11

⚽

Yakubu

7

▼

Sylla

9

▼

Traore

15

Ndjiki

Manager: Kirils Kurbatov

87'▲D. Kivinda←▼M. Sylla

87'▲E. Pinaskins←▼A. Traore

BFC Daugavpils substitutes

1Saveljevs97Kivinda77Aizups27Kopilovs66Bujanovs19Pinaskins20Taty42Saveljevs2Baikovs

Manager: Aleksandrs Basovs

70'▲R. Melkis←▼R. Becers

80'▲E. Smaukstelis←▼A. Janovskis

90'▲G. Patika←▼D. Holoubek

FS Jelgava substitutes

30Belanik12Velika22Pudil21Kacanovs19Petersons8Melkis20Patika28Deklavs18Smaukstelis