Frýdek-Místek vs Dolní Benešov

Frýdek-Místek

CANC

15:30

Dolní Benešov

5/30/2021

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 30Stadion Stovky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Frýdek-Místek62%

×Draw20%

Dolní Benešov18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Frýdek-MístekExpected goals in this matchDolní Benešov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.10

Frýdek-Místek

2.21

Dolní Benešov

1.10

Frýdek-Místek creates 101% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 26 away

1.69

creates per match

1.08

1.12

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

Frýdek-Místek

1.69

Dolní Benešov

1.08

allows per match

Frýdek-Místek

1.12

Dolní Benešov

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frýdek-Místek+0.00on par

Dolní Benešov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frýdek-Místek ↓

Dolní Benešov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Frýdek-Místek or draw

82%

Frýdek-Místek or Dolní Benešov

80%

Draw or Dolní Benešov

38%

Winning margin

Frýdek-Místek wins by 2+

39%

Dolní Benešov wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Frýdek-Místek 1+ goals

89%

Frýdek-Místek 2+ goals

65%

Frýdek-Místek 3+ goals

38%

Dolní Benešov 1+ goals

67%

Dolní Benešov 2+ goals

30%

Dolní Benešov 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Frýdek-Místek (draw refunded)

78%

Dolní Benešov (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frýdek-Místek at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.12 · 83 matches

Dolní Benešov away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frýdek-Místek attack 1.69 + Dolní Benešov defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.21

Dolní Benešov attack 1.08 + Frýdek-Místek defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Frýdek-Místek scores more

62%

level

20%

Dolní Benešov scores more

18%

Frýdek-Místek at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Frýdek-Místek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff