Dolní Benešov vs Frýdek-Místek

Dolní Benešov

CANC

15:30

Frýdek-Místek

6/19/2022

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 33Stadion FC MSA Dolní Benešov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Dolní Benešov29%

×Draw25%

Frýdek-Místek45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dolní BenešovExpected goals in this matchFrýdek-Místek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.54

Dolní Benešov

1.19

Frýdek-Místek

1.54

Frýdek-Místek creates 29% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 81 away

0.80

creates per match

1.48

1.60

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Dolní Benešov

0.80

Frýdek-Místek

1.48

allows per match

Dolní Benešov

1.60

Frýdek-Místek

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dolní Benešov+0.00on par

Frýdek-Místek+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolní Benešov ↓

Frýdek-Místek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Dolní Benešov or draw

55%

Dolní Benešov or Frýdek-Místek

75%

Draw or Frýdek-Místek

71%

Winning margin

Dolní Benešov wins by 2+

12%

Frýdek-Místek wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Dolní Benešov 1+ goals

70%

Dolní Benešov 2+ goals

33%

Dolní Benešov 3+ goals

12%

Frýdek-Místek 1+ goals

79%

Frýdek-Místek 2+ goals

45%

Frýdek-Místek 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Dolní Benešov (draw refunded)

39%

Frýdek-Místek (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolní Benešov at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Frýdek-Místek away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.58 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolní Benešov attack 0.80 + Frýdek-Místek defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.19

Frýdek-Místek attack 1.48 + Dolní Benešov defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dolní Benešov scores more

29%

level

25%

Frýdek-Místek scores more

45%

Frýdek-Místek at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Frýdek-Místek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff