Frýdek-Místek 0–3 Baník Ostrava II: Result & Stats

Frýdek-Místek

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Baník Ostrava II

4/29/2023

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 26Stadion Stovky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Frýdek-Místek34%

×Draw24%

Baník Ostrava II42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Frýdek-MístekExpected goals in this matchBaník Ostrava II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.60

Frýdek-Místek

1.42

Baník Ostrava II

1.60

Baník Ostrava II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 65 away

1.69

creates per match

2.08

1.12

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Frýdek-Místek

1.69

Baník Ostrava II

2.08

allows per match

Frýdek-Místek

1.12

Baník Ostrava II

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frýdek-Místek+0.00on par

Baník Ostrava II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frýdek-Místek ↓

Baník Ostrava II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Frýdek-Místek or draw

58%

Frýdek-Místek or Baník Ostrava II

76%

Draw or Baník Ostrava II

66%

Winning margin

Frýdek-Místek wins by 2+

16%

Baník Ostrava II wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Frýdek-Místek 1+ goals

76%

Frýdek-Místek 2+ goals

41%

Frýdek-Místek 3+ goals

17%

Baník Ostrava II 1+ goals

80%

Baník Ostrava II 2+ goals

47%

Baník Ostrava II 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Frýdek-Místek (draw refunded)

45%

Baník Ostrava II (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frýdek-Místek at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.12 · 83 matches

Baník Ostrava II away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.14 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frýdek-Místek attack 1.69 + Baník Ostrava II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.42

Baník Ostrava II attack 2.08 + Frýdek-Místek defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Frýdek-Místek scores more

34%

level

24%

Baník Ostrava II scores more

42%

Baník Ostrava II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Baník Ostrava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff