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Baník Ostrava II vs Frýdek-Místek — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Baník Ostrava II
Baník Ostrava II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Frýdek-Místek
Frýdek-Místek
10/2/20223. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 9Bazaly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Baník Ostrava II52%
×Draw22%
Frýdek-Místek26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Ostrava II
1.92
Frýdek-Místek
1.29

Baník Ostrava II creates 49% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 81 away

creates per match

Baník Ostrava II
2.25
Frýdek-Místek
1.48

allows per match

Baník Ostrava II
1.09
Frýdek-Místek
1.58

finishing

Baník Ostrava II+0.00on par
Frýdek-Místek+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava II ↓

Frýdek-Místek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava II or draw
74%
Baník Ostrava II or Frýdek-Místek
78%
Draw or Frýdek-Místek
48%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava II wins by 2+
30%
Frýdek-Místek wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava II 1+ goals
85%
Baník Ostrava II 2+ goals
57%
Baník Ostrava II 3+ goals
30%
Frýdek-Místek 1+ goals
72%
Frýdek-Místek 2+ goals
37%
Frýdek-Místek 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava II (draw refunded)
67%
Frýdek-Místek (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

Frýdek-Místek away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.58 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava II attack 2.25 + Frýdek-Místek defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.92

Frýdek-Místek attack 1.48 + Baník Ostrava II defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Baník Ostrava II scores more
52%
level
22%
Frýdek-Místek scores more
26%

Baník Ostrava II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Baník Ostrava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Baník Ostrava II 3–1 Frýdek-Místek

Baník Ostrava II beat Frýdek-Místek 3-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Bazaly in Slezská Ostrava.