Frýdek-Místek U19 vs Dukla Praha U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 15+ matches
Frýdek-Místek U1937%
Dukla Praha U1938%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 15 home / 60 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Frýdek-Místek U19 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Frýdek-Místek U19 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches
Dukla Praha U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.65 · 60 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Frýdek-Místek U19 attack 1.07 + Dukla Praha U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.36
Dukla Praha U19 attack 1.62 + Frýdek-Místek U19 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.38
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Dukla Praha U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Dukla Praha U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Sparta Praha U19
Jindřichův Hradec
Zlín U19
České Budějovice U19
Viktoria Plzeň U19
Pardubice U19
Sigma Olomouc U19
Mladá Boleslav U19
Baník Ostrava U19
Hradec Králové U19
Zbrojovka Brno U19
Slovácko U19
Opava U19
Příbram U19
Karviná U19
Meteor Praha U19If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Frýdek-Místek U19 host Dukla Praha U19 on Saturday, 11 May 2024 at 09:00. The match is part of the 1. Liga U19 2020/2021 season.
Match Recap: Frýdek-Místek U19 vs Dukla Praha U19
Frýdek-Místek U19 beat Dukla Praha U19 1-0 in 1. Liga U19 on May 11, 2024.
Goals: C. Ogbu (46').
The match was played at Stadion Stovky in Frýdek-Místek.