Dukla Praha U19 1–1 Frýdek-Místek U19

Dukla Praha U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Frýdek-Místek U19

S. Barta 50'

D. Nemec 52'

10/14/2023

1. Liga U19 · Round 11Stadion Libčice nad Vltavou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dukla Praha U1963%

×Draw19%

Frýdek-Místek U1919%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dukla Praha U19Expected goals in this matchFrýdek-Místek U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

1.25

Dukla Praha U19

2.41

Frýdek-Místek U19

1.25

Dukla Praha U19 creates 93% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

1.95

creates per match

0.87

1.63

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Dukla Praha U19

1.95

Frýdek-Místek U19

0.87

allows per match

Dukla Praha U19

1.63

Frýdek-Místek U19

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dukla Praha U19+0.00on par

Frýdek-Místek U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Praha U19 ↓

Frýdek-Místek U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Dukla Praha U19 or draw

81%

Dukla Praha U19 or Frýdek-Místek U19

81%

Draw or Frýdek-Místek U19

37%

Winning margin

Dukla Praha U19 wins by 2+

41%

Frýdek-Místek U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Dukla Praha U19 1+ goals

91%

Dukla Praha U19 2+ goals

69%

Dukla Praha U19 3+ goals

43%

Frýdek-Místek U19 1+ goals

71%

Frýdek-Místek U19 2+ goals

36%

Frýdek-Místek U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dukla Praha U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Frýdek-Místek U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Praha U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.63 · 60 matches

Frýdek-Místek U19 away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Praha U19 attack 1.95 + Frýdek-Místek U19 defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.41

Frýdek-Místek U19 attack 0.87 + Dukla Praha U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Dukla Praha U19 scores more

63%

level

19%

Frýdek-Místek U19 scores more

19%

Dukla Praha U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Dukla Praha U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

S. Barta

52'

D. Nemec

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff