Frosinone 2–2 Pescara: Result & Stats | Serie B

Frosinone

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Pescara

A. Raimondo 90'

G. Calo 85' (pen)

A. Di Nardo 33', 2'

3/4/2026

Serie B · Round 28Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Frosinone56%

×Draw22%

Pescara22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrosinoneExpected goals in this matchPescara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.13

Frosinone

1.92

Pescara

1.13

Frosinone creates 70% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

1.94

creates per match

1.13

1.14

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Frosinone

1.94

Pescara

1.13

allows per match

Frosinone

1.14

Pescara

1.89

+0.52scores more than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Frosinone+0.52scores more

Pescara+0.16scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Pescara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw

78%

Frosinone or Pescara

78%

Draw or Pescara

44%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+

32%

Pescara wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals

85%

Frosinone 2+ goals

57%

Frosinone 3+ goals

30%

Pescara 1+ goals

68%

Pescara 2+ goals

31%

Pescara 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)

72%

Pescara (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.14 · 13 matches

Pescara away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.89 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.94 + Pescara defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.92

Pescara attack 1.13 + Frosinone defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Frosinone scores more

56%

level

22%

Pescara scores more

22%

Frosinone at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

G. Calo

Frosinone · M

7.9

Match Events

2'

A. Di Nardo↳ L. Meazzi

4'

G. Altare← D. Faraoni

33'

A. Di Nardo↳ G. Brugman

36'

J. Gelli← G. Cittadini

45+2'

Gabriele CalvaniGoal cancelled

45+9'

Gennaro Acampora

46'

G. Olzer← L. Valzania

52'

Matteo Cichella

53'

Lorenzo Meazzi

65'

Davide Bettella

66'

F. Gelli← I. Koutsoupias

66'

B. L. Kone← R. Marchizza

67'

A. Raimondo← M. Zilli

67'

A. Gravillon← L. Berardi

76'

F. Russo← G. Acampora

77'

A. Fiori← G. Kvernadze

77'

J. Brandes← L. Meazzi

78'

Julian Brandes

82'

Giorgio Altare

85'

G. CaloPenalty

90+4'

Antonio Raimondo

90'

A. Raimondo↳ G. Calvani

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FrosinonePescara

Overview

64%Possession36%

19Total Shots13

2.37Expected Goals (xG)0.83

12Corners1

11Fouls18

Shots

19Total Shots13

6On Target6

5Off Target4

8Blocked3

16Inside Box7

3Outside Box6

Passing

64%Possession36%

377Total Passes229

298Accurate Passes149

79%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

-0.54Goals Prevented-0.54

Discipline

11Fouls18

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides4