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Frosinone vs Pescara — Serie B 2018

Frosinone
Frosinone
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pescara
Pescara
2/19/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 24Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Frosinone54%
×Draw23%
Pescara23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frosinone
1.83
Pescara
1.13

Frosinone creates 62% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

creates per match

Frosinone
1.94
Pescara
1.12

allows per match

Frosinone
1.14
Pescara
1.73

finishing

Frosinone+0.52scores more
Pescara+0.13scores more

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Pescara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw
77%
Frosinone or Pescara
77%
Draw or Pescara
46%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+
30%
Pescara wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals
84%
Frosinone 2+ goals
54%
Frosinone 3+ goals
28%
Pescara 1+ goals
68%
Pescara 2+ goals
31%
Pescara 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)
70%
Pescara (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.14 · 13 matches

Pescara away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.73 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.94 + Pescara defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.83

Pescara attack 1.12 + Frosinone defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Frosinone scores more
54%
level
23%
Pescara scores more
23%

Frosinone at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
R. MaielloFrosinoneFrosinone · M
8.3

Match Events

20'
Salvatore Bocchetti
37'
Daniele Dessena
64'
P. Parzyszek← A. Novakovich
64'
D. Boloca← M. Rohdén
67'
Mirko Drudi
68'
Rodrigo Guth← M. Drudi
68'
C. Capone← C. Galano
74'
Pepín← A. Tabanelli
78'
Pietro Iemmello
81'
L. Ariaudo← N. Brighenti
82'
L. Vitale← F. Zampano
82'
M. Gori← G. Kastanos
89'
F. Maistro← J. Odgaard
90'
Przemysław Szymiński

Possession

59%Frosinone

Shots

13Frosinone

Pass accuracy

52%Frosinone

Statistics

FrosinonePescara
Overview
59%Possession41%
13Total Shots6
4Corners1
17Fouls18
Shots
13Total Shots6
1On Target2
7Off Target2
5Blocked2
4Inside Box2
9Outside Box4
Passing
59%Possession41%
566Total Passes393
471Accurate Passes301
83%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
17Fouls18
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides2

Serie B: Frosinone 0–0 Pescara

Frosinone and Pescara drew 0-0 in Serie B on February 19, 2021.

Frosinone controlled possession (59%) and registered 13 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Frosinone.