Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Frosinone vs Pescara — Serie B 2018

Frosinone
Frosinone
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pescara
Pescara
F. Dionisi 90+4'
R. Maiello 63'
12/14/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 16Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Frosinone49%
×Draw23%
Pescara28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frosinone
1.80
Pescara
1.29

Frosinone creates 40% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

creates per match

Frosinone
1.92
Pescara
1.40

allows per match

Frosinone
1.19
Pescara
1.69

finishing

Frosinone+0.41scores more
Pescara+0.10scores more

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Pescara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw
72%
Frosinone or Pescara
77%
Draw or Pescara
51%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+
27%
Pescara wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals
83%
Frosinone 2+ goals
54%
Frosinone 3+ goals
27%
Pescara 1+ goals
72%
Pescara 2+ goals
37%
Pescara 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)
64%
Pescara (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.19 · 15 matches

Pescara away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.69 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.92 + Pescara defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.80

Pescara attack 1.40 + Frosinone defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Frosinone scores more
49%
level
23%
Pescara scores more
28%

Frosinone at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
R. MaielloFrosinoneFrosinone · M
7.9

Match Events

56'
F. Dionisi← A. Novakovich
61'
Massimiliano Busellato
63'
R. Maiello↳ F. Dionisi
64'
N. Haas← F. Zampano
73'
R. Maniero← D. Vitturini
81'
F. Melegoni← L. Memushaj
83'
G. Borrelli← M. Busellato
90'
A. Salvi← A. Beghetto
90+4'
F. Dionisi↳ N. Haas

Possession

43%Frosinone

Shots

13Frosinone

Pass accuracy

48%Frosinone

Statistics

FrosinonePescara
Overview
43%Possession57%
13Total Shots8
6Corners4
14Fouls13
Shots
13Total Shots8
3On Target1
6Off Target4
4Blocked3
10Inside Box1
3Outside Box7
Passing
43%Possession57%
401Total Passes548
312Accurate Passes461
78%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls13
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Frosinone vs Pescara

Frosinone beat Pescara 2-0 in Serie B on December 14, 2019.

Goals: R. Maiello (63'), F. Dionisi (90+4').

Pescara controlled possession (57%) and registered 8 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Frosinone.