Frosinone 1–2 Crotone: Result & Stats | Serie B

Frosinone

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Crotone

L. Paganini 44'

L. Marrone 90'

A. Mazzotta 24'

12/26/2019

Serie B · Round 18Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Frosinone49%

×Draw26%

Crotone26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrosinoneExpected goals in this matchCrotone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.04

Frosinone

1.54

Crotone

1.04

Frosinone creates 48% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 51 away

1.55

creates per match

1.12

0.97

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Frosinone

1.55

Crotone

1.12

allows per match

Frosinone

0.97

Crotone

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frosinone+0.00on par

Crotone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Crotone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw

74%

Frosinone or Crotone

74%

Draw or Crotone

51%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+

25%

Crotone wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals

79%

Frosinone 2+ goals

45%

Frosinone 3+ goals

20%

Crotone 1+ goals

65%

Crotone 2+ goals

28%

Crotone 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)

66%

Crotone (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.97 · 116 matches

Crotone away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.53 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.55 + Crotone defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.54

Crotone attack 1.12 + Frosinone defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Frosinone scores more

49%

level

26%

Crotone scores more

26%

Frosinone at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

L. Paganini

Frosinone · M

7.6

Match Events

24'

A. Mazzotta↳ M. Mustacchio

33'

Simy

44'

L. Paganini↳ C. Ciano

48'

Luka Krajnc

70'

T. Gomelt← L. Vido

71'

M. Trotta← C. Ciano

78'

M. Rutten← M. Mustacchio

90'

Nicolò Brighenti

90+1'

N. Citro← R. Maiello

90'

L. Marrone

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FrosinoneCrotone

Overview

50%Possession50%

15Total Shots16

4Corners4

14Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots16

5On Target7

9Off Target7

1Blocked2

8Inside Box10

7Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

403Total Passes408

296Accurate Passes302

73%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides1