Crotone 2–0 Frosinone: Result & Stats | Serie B

Crotone

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Frosinone

V. Golemić 48'

M. Marić 15' (pen)

3/15/2022

Serie B · Round 30Stadio Ezio Scida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Crotone40%

×Draw28%

Frosinone32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CrotoneExpected goals in this matchFrosinone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.10

Crotone

1.27

Frosinone

1.10

Crotone creates 15% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 117 away

1.46

creates per match

1.19

1.02

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Crotone

1.46

Frosinone

1.19

allows per match

Crotone

1.02

Frosinone

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crotone+0.00on par

Frosinone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crotone ↓

Frosinone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Crotone or draw

68%

Crotone or Frosinone

72%

Draw or Frosinone

60%

Winning margin

Crotone wins by 2+

18%

Frosinone wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Crotone 1+ goals

72%

Crotone 2+ goals

36%

Crotone 3+ goals

14%

Frosinone 1+ goals

67%

Frosinone 2+ goals

30%

Frosinone 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Crotone (draw refunded)

56%

Frosinone (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crotone at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.02 · 50 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.08 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crotone attack 1.46 + Frosinone defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.27

Frosinone attack 1.19 + Crotone defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crotone scores more

40%

level

28%

Frosinone scores more

32%

Crotone at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crotone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Festa

Crotone · G

7.9

Match Events

15'

M. MarićPenalty

26'

33'

35'

44'

48'

V. Golemić↳ N. Estévez

52'

A. Kargbo← S. Mulattieri

61'

A. Zerbin← K. Lulić

61'

D. Boloca← M. Rohdén

62'

A. Tribuzzi← E. Cicerelli

71'

G. Manzari← L. Canotto

74'

Nahuel Estévez

74'

M. Božić← F. Zampano

77'

G. Borello← B. Kone

77'

P. Giannotti← V. Mogoș

82'

M. Sala← D. Schnegg

82'

T. Schirò← N. Estévez

85'

Augustus Kargbo

90+4'

Matteo Cotali

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrotoneFrosinone

Overview

40%Possession60%

12Total Shots10

3Corners6

17Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots10

6On Target4

3Off Target3

3Blocked3

8Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

40%Possession60%

310Total Passes448

205Accurate Passes327

66%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls14

5Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Serie B: Crotone 2–0 Frosinone

Crotone beat Frosinone 2-0 in Serie B on March 15, 2022.

Goals: M. Marić (15' pen), V. Golemić (48').

Frosinone controlled possession (60%) and registered 10 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio Ezio Scida in Crotone.

Crotone vs Frosinone — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Crotone 2–0 Frosinone