Frosinone 2–0 Catanzaro: Result & Stats | Serie B

Frosinone

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Catanzaro

F. Ghedjemis 90'

I. Monterisi 81'

1/10/2026

Serie B · Round 19Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Frosinone46%

×Draw25%

Catanzaro29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrosinoneExpected goals in this matchCatanzaro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.15

Frosinone

1.52

Catanzaro

1.15

Frosinone creates 32% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

1.62

creates per match

1.16

1.13

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Frosinone

1.62

Catanzaro

1.16

allows per match

Frosinone

1.13

Catanzaro

1.43

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Frosinone+0.38scores more

Catanzaro+0.29scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Catanzaro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw

71%

Frosinone or Catanzaro

75%

Draw or Catanzaro

54%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+

23%

Catanzaro wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals

78%

Frosinone 2+ goals

45%

Frosinone 3+ goals

20%

Catanzaro 1+ goals

68%

Catanzaro 2+ goals

32%

Catanzaro 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)

61%

Catanzaro (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.13 · 7 matches

Catanzaro away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.62 + Catanzaro defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.52

Catanzaro attack 1.16 + Frosinone defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Frosinone scores more

46%

level

25%

Catanzaro scores more

29%

Frosinone at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

I. Monterisi

Frosinone · D

8.9

Match Events

31'

Anthony Oyono

44'

Simone Pontisso

58'

Ruggero Frosinini

58'

Ruggero FrosininiCard upgrade

62'

B. Verrengia← S. Pontisso

62'

F. Rispoli← P. Iemmello

65'

Gabriele Calvani

73'

G. Cittadini← G. Calvani

73'

R. Marchizza← A. Oyono

73'

F. Gelli← G. Kvernadze

74'

Mirko Pigliacelli

75'

Giorgio Cittadini

79'

Jacopo Petriccione

81'

I. Monterisi↳ G. Calo

82'

M. Zilli← A. Raimondo

84'

L. Pandolfi← Matias Antonini

84'

M. Liberali← J. Petriccione

85'

Francesco Gelli

87'

B. L. Kone← M. Cichella

90+5'

Gabriele Bracaglia

90+5'

Costantino Favasuli

90+1'

P. Nuamah← F. Pittarello

90'

F. Ghedjemis↳ M. Zilli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FrosinoneCatanzaro

Overview

54%Possession46%

17Total Shots13

1.16Expected Goals (xG)1.88

5Corners3

19Fouls14

Shots

17Total Shots13

5On Target4

5Off Target6

7Blocked3

11Inside Box6

6Outside Box7

Passing

54%Possession46%

385Total Passes340

335Accurate Passes281

87%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

19Fouls14

5Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Frosinone vs Catanzaro

Frosinone beat Catanzaro 2-0 in Serie B on January 10, 2026.

Goals: I. Monterisi (81'), F. Ghedjemis (90').

Frosinone controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Frosinone.

Frosinone vs Catanzaro — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Frosinone vs Catanzaro