Catanzaro 2–2 Frosinone: Result & Stats | Serie B

Catanzaro

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Frosinone

M. Liberali 46'

R. Frosinini 45'

A. Fiori 67'

M. Cichella 49'

3/1/2026

Serie B · Round 27Stadio Nicola Ceravolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Catanzaro46%

×Draw22%

Frosinone31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CatanzaroExpected goals in this matchFrosinone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.52

Catanzaro

1.88

Frosinone

1.52

Catanzaro creates 24% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.79

creates per match

1.72

1.31

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Catanzaro

1.79

Frosinone

1.72

allows per match

Catanzaro

1.31

Frosinone

1.96

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

+0.48scores more than expected

finishing

Catanzaro+0.38scores more

Frosinone+0.48scores more

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Catanzaro ↓

Frosinone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Catanzaro or draw

69%

Catanzaro or Frosinone

78%

Draw or Frosinone

54%

Winning margin

Catanzaro wins by 2+

25%

Frosinone wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Catanzaro 1+ goals

85%

Catanzaro 2+ goals

56%

Catanzaro 3+ goals

29%

Frosinone 1+ goals

78%

Frosinone 2+ goals

45%

Frosinone 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Catanzaro (draw refunded)

59%

Frosinone (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Catanzaro at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.31 · 6 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.96 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Catanzaro attack 1.79 + Frosinone defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.88

Frosinone attack 1.72 + Catanzaro defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Catanzaro scores more

46%

level

22%

Frosinone scores more

31%

Catanzaro at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Catanzaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

C. Favasuli

Catanzaro · M

8.5

Match Events

28'

Anthony Oyono

45'

R. Frosinini

46'

M. Liberali↳ F. Pittarello

49'

M. Cichella

54'

M. Zilli← G. Kvernadze

55'

A. Fiori← A. Raimondo

67'

A. Fiori↳ A. Oyono

68'

Antonio Fiori

68'

M. D'Alessandro← Matias Antonini

68'

M. Pompetti← S. Pontisso

70'

J. Oyono← A. Oyono

77'

P. Nuamah← F. Pittarello

84'

N. Koffi← R. Frosinini

84'

B. Verrengia← M. Liberali

89'

Pietro Iemmello

89'

Giorgio Cittadini

90+4'

Jérémy Oyono

90'

F. Gelli← I. Koutsoupias

90'

N. Corrado← R. Marchizza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CatanzaroFrosinone

Overview

49%Possession51%

22Total Shots22

3.16Expected Goals (xG)2.23

3Corners9

16Fouls17

Shots

22Total Shots22

8On Target7

10Off Target5

4Blocked10

17Inside Box15

5Outside Box7

Passing

49%Possession51%

309Total Passes307

247Accurate Passes247

80%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves6

1.10Goals Prevented1.10

Discipline

16Fouls17

1Yellow Cards4

3Offsides0