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Frosinone U20 vs Fiorentina U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Frosinone U20
Frosinone U20
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Fiorentina U20
Fiorentina U20
11/9/2025Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 11Sports Citadel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Frosinone U2030%
×Draw23%
Fiorentina U2047%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frosinone U20
1.39
Fiorentina U20
1.81

Fiorentina U20 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 39 away

creates per match

Frosinone U20
1.42
Fiorentina U20
1.62

allows per match

Frosinone U20
2.00
Fiorentina U20
1.36

finishing

Frosinone U20+0.00on par
Fiorentina U20+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone U20 ↓

Fiorentina U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Frosinone U20 or draw
53%
Frosinone U20 or Fiorentina U20
77%
Draw or Fiorentina U20
70%

Winning margin

Frosinone U20 wins by 2+
13%
Fiorentina U20 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Frosinone U20 1+ goals
75%
Frosinone U20 2+ goals
40%
Frosinone U20 3+ goals
16%
Fiorentina U20 1+ goals
84%
Fiorentina U20 2+ goals
54%
Fiorentina U20 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Frosinone U20 (draw refunded)
39%
Fiorentina U20 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone U20 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

Fiorentina U20 away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.36 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone U20 attack 1.42 + Fiorentina U20 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.39

Fiorentina U20 attack 1.62 + Frosinone U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Frosinone U20 scores more
30%
level
23%
Fiorentina U20 scores more
47%

Fiorentina U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fiorentina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Frosinone U20 1–2 Fiorentina U20

Fiorentina U20 beat Frosinone U20 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Sports Citadel in Ferentino.