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Fiorentina U20 vs Frosinone U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Fiorentina U20
Fiorentina U20
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Frosinone U20
Frosinone U20
4/6/2026Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 32Stadio Curva Fiesole - Viola Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Fiorentina U2060%
×Draw21%
Frosinone U2020%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiorentina U20
2.12
Frosinone U20
1.13

Fiorentina U20 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 19 away

creates per match

Fiorentina U20
2.24
Frosinone U20
1.05

allows per match

Fiorentina U20
1.21
Frosinone U20
2.00

finishing

Fiorentina U20+0.00on par
Frosinone U20+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina U20 ↓

Frosinone U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Fiorentina U20 or draw
80%
Fiorentina U20 or Frosinone U20
79%
Draw or Frosinone U20
40%

Winning margin

Fiorentina U20 wins by 2+
37%
Frosinone U20 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Fiorentina U20 1+ goals
88%
Fiorentina U20 2+ goals
62%
Fiorentina U20 3+ goals
35%
Frosinone U20 1+ goals
68%
Frosinone U20 2+ goals
31%
Frosinone U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina U20 (draw refunded)
75%
Frosinone U20 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina U20 at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Frosinone U20 away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina U20 attack 2.24 + Frosinone U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.12

Frosinone U20 attack 1.05 + Fiorentina U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Fiorentina U20 scores more
60%
level
21%
Frosinone U20 scores more
20%

Fiorentina U20 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Fiorentina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fiorentina U20 vs Frosinone U20

Fiorentina U20 beat Frosinone U20 5-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on April 6, 2026.

The match was played at Stadio Curva Fiesole - Viola Park in Bagno a Ripoli.