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Frosinone U19 vs Cremonese U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Frosinone U19
Frosinone U19
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cremonese U19
Cremonese U19advanced
5/7/2022Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Promotion Play-offs - Quarter-finalsStadio Comunale di Ferentino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Frosinone U1937%
×Draw24%
Cremonese U1938%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frosinone U19
1.51
Cremonese U19
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 55 away

creates per match

Frosinone U19
2.20
Cremonese U19
1.96

allows per match

Frosinone U19
1.10
Cremonese U19
0.82

finishing

Frosinone U19+0.00on par
Cremonese U19+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone U19 ↓

Cremonese U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Frosinone U19 or draw
62%
Frosinone U19 or Cremonese U19
76%
Draw or Cremonese U19
63%

Winning margin

Frosinone U19 wins by 2+
18%
Cremonese U19 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Frosinone U19 1+ goals
78%
Frosinone U19 2+ goals
44%
Frosinone U19 3+ goals
19%
Cremonese U19 1+ goals
78%
Cremonese U19 2+ goals
45%
Cremonese U19 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Frosinone U19 (draw refunded)
49%
Cremonese U19 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone U19 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.10 · 40 matches

Cremonese U19 away — creates 1.96, concedes 0.82 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone U19 attack 2.20 + Cremonese U19 defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.51

Cremonese U19 attack 1.96 + Frosinone U19 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Frosinone U19 scores more
37%
level
24%
Cremonese U19 scores more
38%

Cremonese U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cremonese U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Frosinone U19 0–1 Cremonese U19

Cremonese U19 beat Frosinone U19 1-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Ferentino in Ferentino.