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Cremonese U19 vs Frosinone U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Cremonese U19
Cremonese U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Frosinone U19
Frosinone U19advanced
4/30/2022Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Promotion Play-offs - Quarter-finalsCentro Sportivo Campo Aquile

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Cremonese U1939%
×Draw22%
Frosinone U1939%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cremonese U19
1.81
Frosinone U19
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 41 away

creates per match

Cremonese U19
2.31
Frosinone U19
1.93

allows per match

Cremonese U19
1.65
Frosinone U19
1.32

finishing

Cremonese U19+0.00on par
Frosinone U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cremonese U19 ↓

Frosinone U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Cremonese U19 or draw
61%
Cremonese U19 or Frosinone U19
78%
Draw or Frosinone U19
61%

Winning margin

Cremonese U19 wins by 2+
21%
Frosinone U19 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Cremonese U19 1+ goals
84%
Cremonese U19 2+ goals
54%
Cremonese U19 3+ goals
27%
Frosinone U19 1+ goals
83%
Frosinone U19 2+ goals
53%
Frosinone U19 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Cremonese U19 (draw refunded)
51%
Frosinone U19 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cremonese U19 at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.65 · 54 matches

Frosinone U19 away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.32 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cremonese U19 attack 2.31 + Frosinone U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.81

Frosinone U19 attack 1.93 + Cremonese U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cremonese U19 scores more
39%
level
22%
Frosinone U19 scores more
39%

Cremonese U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cremonese U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cremonese U19 vs Frosinone U19

Frosinone U19 beat Cremonese U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Campo Aquile in Formello.