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Frohnleiten vs Bad Waltersdorf — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Frohnleiten
Frohnleiten
FT
1 – 2
Bad Waltersdorf
Bad Waltersdorf
3/14/2025Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 17Franz Feldgrill-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Frohnleiten27%
×Draw22%
Bad Waltersdorf51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frohnleiten
1.38
Bad Waltersdorf
1.97

Bad Waltersdorf creates 43% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Frohnleiten
0.73
Bad Waltersdorf
1.47

allows per match

Frohnleiten
2.47
Bad Waltersdorf
2.03

finishing

Frohnleiten+0.00on par
Bad Waltersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frohnleiten ↓

Bad Waltersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Frohnleiten or draw
49%
Frohnleiten or Bad Waltersdorf
78%
Draw or Bad Waltersdorf
73%

Winning margin

Frohnleiten wins by 2+
12%
Bad Waltersdorf wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Frohnleiten 1+ goals
75%
Frohnleiten 2+ goals
40%
Frohnleiten 3+ goals
16%
Bad Waltersdorf 1+ goals
86%
Bad Waltersdorf 2+ goals
58%
Bad Waltersdorf 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Frohnleiten (draw refunded)
35%
Bad Waltersdorf (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frohnleiten at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

Bad Waltersdorf away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frohnleiten attack 0.73 + Bad Waltersdorf defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.38

Bad Waltersdorf attack 1.47 + Frohnleiten defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Frohnleiten scores more
27%
level
22%
Bad Waltersdorf scores more
51%

Bad Waltersdorf at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bad Waltersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Frohnleiten 1–2 Bad Waltersdorf

Bad Waltersdorf beat Frohnleiten 2-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on March 14, 2025.

The match was played at Franz Feldgrill-Stadion in Frohnleiten.