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Bad Waltersdorf vs Frohnleiten — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Bad Waltersdorf
Bad Waltersdorf
FT
3 – 0
Frohnleiten
Frohnleiten
8/9/2024Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 2Thermenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bad Waltersdorf75%
×Draw14%
Frohnleiten11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bad Waltersdorf
3.01
Frohnleiten
1.07

Bad Waltersdorf creates 181% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 15 away

creates per match

Bad Waltersdorf
2.03
Frohnleiten
0.60

allows per match

Bad Waltersdorf
1.55
Frohnleiten
4.00

finishing

Bad Waltersdorf+0.00on par
Frohnleiten+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Waltersdorf ↓

Frohnleiten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Bad Waltersdorf or draw
89%
Bad Waltersdorf or Frohnleiten
86%
Draw or Frohnleiten
25%

Winning margin

Bad Waltersdorf wins by 2+
56%
Frohnleiten wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bad Waltersdorf 1+ goals
95%
Bad Waltersdorf 2+ goals
80%
Bad Waltersdorf 3+ goals
56%
Frohnleiten 1+ goals
66%
Frohnleiten 2+ goals
29%
Frohnleiten 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bad Waltersdorf (draw refunded)
88%
Frohnleiten (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Waltersdorf at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.55 · 29 matches

Frohnleiten away — creates 0.60, concedes 4.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Waltersdorf attack 2.03 + Frohnleiten defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.01

Frohnleiten attack 0.60 + Bad Waltersdorf defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Bad Waltersdorf scores more
75%
level
14%
Frohnleiten scores more
11%

Bad Waltersdorf at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Bad Waltersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bad Waltersdorf vs Frohnleiten

Bad Waltersdorf beat Frohnleiten 3-0 in Landesliga - Steiermark on August 9, 2024.

The match was played at Thermenstadion in Bad Waltersdorf.