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Friesdorf vs Eintracht Hohkeppel — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Friesdorf
Friesdorf
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Eintracht Hohkeppel
Eintracht Hohkeppel
10/9/2022Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 8Sportzentrum Friesdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Friesdorf31%
×Draw21%
Eintracht Hohkeppel48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Friesdorf
1.65
Eintracht Hohkeppel
2.08

Eintracht Hohkeppel creates 26% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 43 away

creates per match

Friesdorf
1.91
Eintracht Hohkeppel
1.91

allows per match

Friesdorf
2.25
Eintracht Hohkeppel
1.40

finishing

Friesdorf+0.00on par
Eintracht Hohkeppel+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Friesdorf ↓

Eintracht Hohkeppel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Friesdorf or draw
52%
Friesdorf or Eintracht Hohkeppel
79%
Draw or Eintracht Hohkeppel
69%

Winning margin

Friesdorf wins by 2+
15%
Eintracht Hohkeppel wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Friesdorf 1+ goals
81%
Friesdorf 2+ goals
49%
Friesdorf 3+ goals
23%
Eintracht Hohkeppel 1+ goals
87%
Eintracht Hohkeppel 2+ goals
61%
Eintracht Hohkeppel 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Friesdorf (draw refunded)
39%
Eintracht Hohkeppel (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Friesdorf at home — creates 1.91, concedes 2.25 · 32 matches

Eintracht Hohkeppel away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Friesdorf attack 1.91 + Eintracht Hohkeppel defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.65

Eintracht Hohkeppel attack 1.91 + Friesdorf defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Friesdorf scores more
31%
level
21%
Eintracht Hohkeppel scores more
48%

Eintracht Hohkeppel at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Eintracht Hohkeppel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Friesdorf 0–2 Eintracht Hohkeppel

Eintracht Hohkeppel beat Friesdorf 2-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Friesdorf in Bonn.