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Eintracht Hohkeppel vs Friesdorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Eintracht Hohkeppel
Eintracht Hohkeppel
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Friesdorf
Friesdorf
4/30/2023Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 23Hohkeppel Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Eintracht Hohkeppel72%
×Draw15%
Friesdorf13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Hohkeppel
2.94
Friesdorf
1.19

Eintracht Hohkeppel creates 147% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 36 away

creates per match

Eintracht Hohkeppel
3.38
Friesdorf
1.36

allows per match

Eintracht Hohkeppel
1.02
Friesdorf
2.50

finishing

Eintracht Hohkeppel+0.00on par
Friesdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Hohkeppel ↓

Friesdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Eintracht Hohkeppel or draw
87%
Eintracht Hohkeppel or Friesdorf
85%
Draw or Friesdorf
28%

Winning margin

Eintracht Hohkeppel wins by 2+
52%
Friesdorf wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Eintracht Hohkeppel 1+ goals
95%
Eintracht Hohkeppel 2+ goals
79%
Eintracht Hohkeppel 3+ goals
55%
Friesdorf 1+ goals
70%
Friesdorf 2+ goals
33%
Friesdorf 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Hohkeppel (draw refunded)
85%
Friesdorf (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Hohkeppel at home — creates 3.38, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

Friesdorf away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Hohkeppel attack 3.38 + Friesdorf defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.94

Friesdorf attack 1.36 + Eintracht Hohkeppel defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Eintracht Hohkeppel scores more
72%
level
15%
Friesdorf scores more
13%

Eintracht Hohkeppel at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Eintracht Hohkeppel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Eintracht Hohkeppel 1–1 Friesdorf

Eintracht Hohkeppel and Friesdorf drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Hohkeppel Kunstrasen in Lindlar.