Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Friedberg vs Baunatal — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Friedberg
Friedberg
FT
2 – 6
HT: 1 – 3
Baunatal
Baunatal
4/10/2026Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 27Rasenplatz Friedberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Friedberg50%
×Draw21%
Baunatal29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Friedberg
2.06
Baunatal
1.52

Friedberg creates 36% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 92 away

creates per match

Friedberg
2.46
Baunatal
1.51

allows per match

Friedberg
1.52
Baunatal
1.67

finishing

Friedberg+0.00on par
Baunatal+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Friedberg ↓

Baunatal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Friedberg or draw
71%
Friedberg or Baunatal
79%
Draw or Baunatal
50%

Winning margin

Friedberg wins by 2+
29%
Baunatal wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Friedberg 1+ goals
87%
Friedberg 2+ goals
61%
Friedberg 3+ goals
34%
Baunatal 1+ goals
78%
Baunatal 2+ goals
45%
Baunatal 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Friedberg (draw refunded)
64%
Baunatal (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Friedberg at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.52 · 93 matches

Baunatal away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.67 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Friedberg attack 2.46 + Baunatal defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.06

Baunatal attack 1.51 + Friedberg defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Friedberg scores more
50%
level
21%
Baunatal scores more
29%

Friedberg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Friedberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Friedberg vs Baunatal

Baunatal beat Friedberg 6-2 in Oberliga - Hessen on April 10, 2026.

The match was played at Rasenplatz Friedberg in Friedberg (Hessen).