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Baunatal vs Friedberg — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Baunatal
Baunatal
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Friedberg
Friedberg
9/20/2025Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 9Parkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Baunatal42%
×Draw23%
Friedberg35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baunatal
1.77
Friedberg
1.60

Baunatal creates 11% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 92 away

creates per match

Baunatal
2.03
Friedberg
1.89

allows per match

Baunatal
1.32
Friedberg
1.52

finishing

Baunatal+0.00on par
Friedberg+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baunatal ↓

Friedberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Baunatal or draw
65%
Baunatal or Friedberg
77%
Draw or Friedberg
58%

Winning margin

Baunatal wins by 2+
22%
Friedberg wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Baunatal 1+ goals
83%
Baunatal 2+ goals
53%
Baunatal 3+ goals
26%
Friedberg 1+ goals
80%
Friedberg 2+ goals
47%
Friedberg 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Baunatal (draw refunded)
55%
Friedberg (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baunatal at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.32 · 92 matches

Friedberg away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.52 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baunatal attack 2.03 + Friedberg defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.77

Friedberg attack 1.89 + Baunatal defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Baunatal scores more
42%
level
23%
Friedberg scores more
35%

Baunatal at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Baunatal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hessen: Baunatal 4–0 Friedberg

Baunatal beat Friedberg 4-0 in Oberliga - Hessen on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Parkstadion in Baunatal.