Frem 0–1 Aarhus Fremad: Result & Stats

Frem

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Aarhus Fremad

L. From 90+1'

3/18/2023

2nd Division - Group 1 · Round 18Valby Idrætspark kunstbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Frem33%

×Draw26%

Aarhus Fremad41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FremExpected goals in this matchAarhus Fremad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.44

Frem

1.27

Aarhus Fremad

1.44

Aarhus Fremad creates 13% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 81 away

1.40

creates per match

1.63

1.26

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Frem

1.40

Aarhus Fremad

1.63

allows per match

Frem

1.26

Aarhus Fremad

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frem+0.00on par

Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frem ↓

Aarhus Fremad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Frem or draw

59%

Frem or Aarhus Fremad

74%

Draw or Aarhus Fremad

67%

Winning margin

Frem wins by 2+

14%

Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Frem 1+ goals

72%

Frem 2+ goals

36%

Frem 3+ goals

14%

Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals

76%

Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals

42%

Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Frem (draw refunded)

45%

Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frem at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 53 matches

Aarhus Fremad away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frem attack 1.40 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.27

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.63 + Frem defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Frem scores more

33%

level

26%

Aarhus Fremad scores more

41%

Aarhus Fremad at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+1'

L. From

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff