Aarhus Fremad 2–1 Frem: Result & Stats

Aarhus Fremad

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Frem

9/21/2024

2nd Division - Group 1 · Round 8Riisvangen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Aarhus Fremad54%

×Draw23%

Frem23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aarhus FremadExpected goals in this matchFrem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.08

Aarhus Fremad

1.78

Frem

1.08

Aarhus Fremad creates 65% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 53 away

2.01

creates per match

1.06

1.09

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Aarhus Fremad

2.01

Frem

1.06

allows per match

Aarhus Fremad

1.09

Frem

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Frem+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarhus Fremad ↓

Frem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Aarhus Fremad or draw

77%

Aarhus Fremad or Frem

77%

Draw or Frem

46%

Winning margin

Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+

30%

Frem wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals

83%

Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals

53%

Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals

26%

Frem 1+ goals

66%

Frem 2+ goals

29%

Frem 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)

70%

Frem (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarhus Fremad at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.09 · 78 matches

Frem away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarhus Fremad attack 2.01 + Frem defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.78

Frem attack 1.06 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Aarhus Fremad scores more

54%

level

23%

Frem scores more

23%

Aarhus Fremad at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff