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Freiburger FC vs FC Nottingen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Freiburger FC
Freiburger FC
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
FC Nottingen
FC Nottingen
M. Eggert 76'
D. Tritschler 54', 30'
B. Fassler 71'
N. Hecht-Zirpel 61'
12/3/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 20Kunstrasenplatz Duraku-Bau Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Freiburger FC32%
×Draw21%
FC Nottingen47%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freiburger FC
1.71
FC Nottingen
2.08

FC Nottingen creates 22% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 93 away

creates per match

Freiburger FC
1.52
FC Nottingen
1.96

allows per match

Freiburger FC
2.21
FC Nottingen
1.89

finishing

Freiburger FC+0.00on par
FC Nottingen+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburger FC ↓

FC Nottingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Freiburger FC or draw
53%
Freiburger FC or FC Nottingen
79%
Draw or FC Nottingen
68%

Winning margin

Freiburger FC wins by 2+
16%
FC Nottingen wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Freiburger FC 1+ goals
82%
Freiburger FC 2+ goals
51%
Freiburger FC 3+ goals
24%
FC Nottingen 1+ goals
87%
FC Nottingen 2+ goals
61%
FC Nottingen 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Freiburger FC (draw refunded)
41%
FC Nottingen (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburger FC at home — creates 1.52, concedes 2.21 · 42 matches

FC Nottingen away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.89 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburger FC attack 1.52 + FC Nottingen defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.71

FC Nottingen attack 1.96 + Freiburger FC defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Freiburger FC scores more
32%
level
21%
FC Nottingen scores more
47%

FC Nottingen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Nottingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
D. Tritschler
54'
D. Tritschler
61'
N. Hecht-Zirpel
71'
B. Fassler
76'
M. Eggert

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Freiburger FC 3–2 FC Nottingen

Freiburger FC beat FC Nottingen 3-2 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on December 3, 2022.

Goals: D. Tritschler (30', 54'), N. Hecht-Zirpel (61'), B. Fassler (71'), M. Eggert (76').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Duraku-Bau Arena in Freiburg im Breisgau.