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FC Nottingen vs Freiburger FC — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FC Nottingen
FC Nottingen
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Freiburger FC
Freiburger FC
8/17/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 3Kleiner-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

FC Nottingen58%
×Draw20%
Freiburger FC22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Nottingen
2.22
Freiburger FC
1.31

FC Nottingen creates 69% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 42 away

creates per match

FC Nottingen
2.38
Freiburger FC
1.12

allows per match

FC Nottingen
1.50
Freiburger FC
2.07

finishing

FC Nottingen+0.00on par
Freiburger FC+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nottingen ↓

Freiburger FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

FC Nottingen or draw
78%
FC Nottingen or Freiburger FC
80%
Draw or Freiburger FC
42%

Winning margin

FC Nottingen wins by 2+
36%
Freiburger FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FC Nottingen 1+ goals
89%
FC Nottingen 2+ goals
65%
FC Nottingen 3+ goals
38%
Freiburger FC 1+ goals
73%
Freiburger FC 2+ goals
38%
Freiburger FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Nottingen (draw refunded)
72%
Freiburger FC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nottingen at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.50 · 92 matches

Freiburger FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.07 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nottingen attack 2.38 + Freiburger FC defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.22

Freiburger FC attack 1.12 + FC Nottingen defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FC Nottingen scores more
58%
level
20%
Freiburger FC scores more
22%

FC Nottingen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FC Nottingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Nottingen vs Freiburger FC

FC Nottingen beat Freiburger FC 3-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on August 17, 2022.

The match was played at Kleiner-Arena in Remchingen.