Freiburger FC 3–3 FC 08 Villingen: Result & Stats

Freiburger FC

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

FC 08 Villingen

M. Anlicker 75'

A. Martinelli 56'

R. Hinrichsen 12'

F. Bruno 89'

M. Foulon 64'

J. Brandle 2'

11/19/2022

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 18Dietenbach-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Freiburger FC31%

×Draw22%

FC 08 Villingen47%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Freiburger FCExpected goals in this matchFC 08 Villingen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.91

Freiburger FC

1.50

FC 08 Villingen

1.91

FC 08 Villingen creates 27% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 76 away

1.52

creates per match

1.61

2.21

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Freiburger FC

1.52

FC 08 Villingen

1.61

allows per match

Freiburger FC

2.21

FC 08 Villingen

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Freiburger FC+0.00on par

FC 08 Villingen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburger FC ↓

FC 08 Villingen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Freiburger FC or draw

53%

Freiburger FC or FC 08 Villingen

78%

Draw or FC 08 Villingen

69%

Winning margin

Freiburger FC wins by 2+

14%

FC 08 Villingen wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Freiburger FC 1+ goals

78%

Freiburger FC 2+ goals

44%

Freiburger FC 3+ goals

19%

FC 08 Villingen 1+ goals

85%

FC 08 Villingen 2+ goals

57%

FC 08 Villingen 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Freiburger FC (draw refunded)

39%

FC 08 Villingen (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburger FC at home — creates 1.52, concedes 2.21 · 42 matches

FC 08 Villingen away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.47 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburger FC attack 1.52 + FC 08 Villingen defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.50

FC 08 Villingen attack 1.61 + Freiburger FC defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Freiburger FC scores more

31%

level

22%

FC 08 Villingen scores more

47%

FC 08 Villingen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC 08 Villingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

J. Brandle

12'

R. Hinrichsen

56'

A. Martinelli

64'

M. Foulon

75'

M. Anlicker

89'

F. Bruno

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff