FC 08 Villingen vs Freiburger FC

FC 08 Villingen

CANC

13:30

Freiburger FC

4/5/2021

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 27MS Technologie Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

FC 08 Villingen58%

×Draw21%

Freiburger FC21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC 08 VillingenExpected goals in this matchFreiburger FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.23

FC 08 Villingen

2.16

Freiburger FC

1.23

FC 08 Villingen creates 76% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 42 away

2.25

creates per match

1.12

1.34

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

FC 08 Villingen

2.25

Freiburger FC

1.12

allows per match

FC 08 Villingen

1.34

Freiburger FC

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC 08 Villingen+0.00on par

Freiburger FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC 08 Villingen ↓

Freiburger FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

FC 08 Villingen or draw

79%

FC 08 Villingen or Freiburger FC

79%

Draw or Freiburger FC

42%

Winning margin

FC 08 Villingen wins by 2+

36%

Freiburger FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FC 08 Villingen 1+ goals

88%

FC 08 Villingen 2+ goals

63%

FC 08 Villingen 3+ goals

36%

Freiburger FC 1+ goals

71%

Freiburger FC 2+ goals

35%

Freiburger FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

FC 08 Villingen (draw refunded)

73%

Freiburger FC (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC 08 Villingen at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

Freiburger FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.07 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC 08 Villingen attack 2.25 + Freiburger FC defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.16

Freiburger FC attack 1.12 + FC 08 Villingen defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FC 08 Villingen scores more

58%

level

21%

Freiburger FC scores more

21%

FC 08 Villingen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FC 08 Villingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff