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Freiburger FC vs Bissingen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Freiburger FC
Freiburger FC
CANC
12:30
Bissingen
Bissingen
4/10/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 28Dietenbach-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Freiburger FC39%
×Draw21%
Bissingen40%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freiburger FC
1.90
Bissingen
1.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 93 away

creates per match

Freiburger FC
1.52
Bissingen
1.66

allows per match

Freiburger FC
2.21
Bissingen
2.27

finishing

Freiburger FC+0.00on par
Bissingen+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburger FC ↓

Bissingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Freiburger FC or draw
60%
Freiburger FC or Bissingen
79%
Draw or Bissingen
61%

Winning margin

Freiburger FC wins by 2+
20%
Bissingen wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Freiburger FC 1+ goals
85%
Freiburger FC 2+ goals
56%
Freiburger FC 3+ goals
29%
Bissingen 1+ goals
86%
Bissingen 2+ goals
58%
Bissingen 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Freiburger FC (draw refunded)
49%
Bissingen (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburger FC at home — creates 1.52, concedes 2.21 · 42 matches

Bissingen away — creates 1.66, concedes 2.27 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburger FC attack 1.52 + Bissingen defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.90

Bissingen attack 1.66 + Freiburger FC defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Freiburger FC scores more
39%
level
21%
Bissingen scores more
40%

Bissingen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bissingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Freiburger FC vs Bissingen — Match Preview

Freiburger FC face Bissingen on April 10, 2021 in this Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Freiburger FC host Bissingen at Dietenbach-Sportpark.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.