Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bissingen vs Freiburger FC — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Bissingen
Bissingen
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Freiburger FC
Freiburger FC
3/4/2023Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 21Waldstrasse Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Bissingen52%
×Draw22%
Freiburger FC26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bissingen
1.97
Freiburger FC
1.35

Bissingen creates 46% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 42 away

creates per match

Bissingen
1.88
Freiburger FC
1.12

allows per match

Bissingen
1.59
Freiburger FC
2.07

finishing

Bissingen+0.00on par
Freiburger FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bissingen ↓

Freiburger FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Bissingen or draw
74%
Bissingen or Freiburger FC
78%
Draw or Freiburger FC
48%

Winning margin

Bissingen wins by 2+
30%
Freiburger FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bissingen 1+ goals
86%
Bissingen 2+ goals
58%
Bissingen 3+ goals
31%
Freiburger FC 1+ goals
74%
Freiburger FC 2+ goals
39%
Freiburger FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bissingen (draw refunded)
66%
Freiburger FC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bissingen at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.59 · 94 matches

Freiburger FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.07 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bissingen attack 1.88 + Freiburger FC defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.97

Freiburger FC attack 1.12 + Bissingen defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bissingen scores more
52%
level
22%
Freiburger FC scores more
26%

Bissingen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bissingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bissingen vs Freiburger FC

Bissingen beat Freiburger FC 3-2 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Waldstrasse Kunstrasenplatz in Bietigheim-Bissingen.