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Freiburger FC vs Backnang — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Freiburger FC
Freiburger FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Backnang
Backnang
5/7/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 34Dietenbach-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Freiburger FC35%
×Draw22%
Backnang43%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freiburger FC
1.67
Backnang
1.89

Backnang creates 13% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 93 away

creates per match

Freiburger FC
1.52
Backnang
1.57

allows per match

Freiburger FC
2.21
Backnang
1.82

finishing

Freiburger FC+0.00on par
Backnang+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburger FC ↓

Backnang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Freiburger FC or draw
57%
Freiburger FC or Backnang
78%
Draw or Backnang
65%

Winning margin

Freiburger FC wins by 2+
17%
Backnang wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Freiburger FC 1+ goals
81%
Freiburger FC 2+ goals
50%
Freiburger FC 3+ goals
23%
Backnang 1+ goals
85%
Backnang 2+ goals
56%
Backnang 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Freiburger FC (draw refunded)
44%
Backnang (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburger FC at home — creates 1.52, concedes 2.21 · 42 matches

Backnang away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.82 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburger FC attack 1.52 + Backnang defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.67

Backnang attack 1.57 + Freiburger FC defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Freiburger FC scores more
35%
level
22%
Backnang scores more
43%

Backnang at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Backnang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Freiburger FC vs Backnang

Freiburger FC beat Backnang 2-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Dietenbach-Sportpark in Freiburg im Breisgau.