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Backnang vs Freiburger FC — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Backnang
Backnang
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Freiburger FC
Freiburger FC
M. Rienhardt 82', 50'
M. Tasdelen 17', 11' (pen)
A. Ibrahim 90+3', 81'
8/27/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 5Etzwiesenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Backnang50%
×Draw22%
Freiburger FC28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Backnang
1.96
Freiburger FC
1.42

Backnang creates 38% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 42 away

creates per match

Backnang
1.85
Freiburger FC
1.12

allows per match

Backnang
1.71
Freiburger FC
2.07

finishing

Backnang+0.00on par
Freiburger FC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Backnang ↓

Freiburger FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Backnang or draw
72%
Backnang or Freiburger FC
78%
Draw or Freiburger FC
50%

Winning margin

Backnang wins by 2+
28%
Freiburger FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Backnang 1+ goals
86%
Backnang 2+ goals
58%
Backnang 3+ goals
31%
Freiburger FC 1+ goals
76%
Freiburger FC 2+ goals
41%
Freiburger FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Backnang (draw refunded)
64%
Freiburger FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Backnang at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.71 · 93 matches

Freiburger FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.07 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Backnang attack 1.85 + Freiburger FC defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.96

Freiburger FC attack 1.12 + Backnang defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Backnang scores more
50%
level
22%
Freiburger FC scores more
28%

Backnang at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Backnang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
M. TasdelenPenalty
17'
M. Tasdelen
50'
M. Rienhardt
53'
P. Tichy
81'
A. Ibrahim
82'
M. Rienhardt
90+3'
A. Ibrahim

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Backnang 4–2 Freiburger FC

Backnang beat Freiburger FC 4-2 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on August 27, 2022.

Goals: M. Tasdelen (11' pen, 17'), M. Rienhardt (50', 82'), A. Ibrahim (81', 90+3').

The match was played at Etzwiesenstadion in Backnang.