Freiburg U19 2–1 Bayern München U19: Result & Stats

Freiburg U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bayern München U19

L. Čatak 82'

L. Tober 70'

A. Ibrahimović 63'

3/4/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 16Möslestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Freiburg U1939%

×Draw20%

Bayern München U1941%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Freiburg U19Expected goals in this matchBayern München U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

2.11

Freiburg U19

2.05

Bayern München U19

2.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 72 away

2.44

creates per match

2.63

1.59

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Freiburg U19

2.44

Bayern München U19

2.63

allows per match

Freiburg U19

1.59

Bayern München U19

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Freiburg U19+0.00on par

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburg U19 ↓

Bayern München U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Freiburg U19 or draw

59%

Freiburg U19 or Bayern München U19

80%

Draw or Bayern München U19

61%

Winning margin

Freiburg U19 wins by 2+

21%

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Freiburg U19 1+ goals

87%

Freiburg U19 2+ goals

61%

Freiburg U19 3+ goals

33%

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

88%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

62%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburg U19 at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

Bayern München U19 away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.67 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburg U19 attack 2.44 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.05

Bayern München U19 attack 2.63 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Freiburg U19 scores more

39%

level

20%

Bayern München U19 scores more

41%

Bayern München U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bayern München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

J. Manzambi← G. Pellegrino

57'

L. Čatak← D. Amegnaglo

61'

B. Dibrani← M. Schablas

62'

63'

70'

79'

79'

82'

88'

A. Ketterer← L. Tober

88'

J. Wensing← J. Manzambi

Freiburg

Bayern

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: F. Valente

46'▲J. Manzambi←▼G. Pellegrino

57'▲L. Čatak←▼D. Amegnaglo

62'▲Y. Sturm←▼A. Vaher

88'▲A. Ketterer←▼L. Tober

88'▲J. Wensing←▼J. Manzambi

Freiburg U19 substitutes

ManzambiČatakSturmKettererWensingSchopperBleise

Manager: D. Galm

61'▲B. Dibrani←▼M. Schablas

79'▲B. Emci←▼M. Vinlöf

79'▲Y. Qashi←▼L. Klanac

Bayern München U19 substitutes

DibraniEmciQashiDettoniBengiBöhmekeDeziel

U19 Bundesliga: Freiburg U19 2–1 Bayern München U19

Freiburg U19 beat Bayern München U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on March 4, 2023.

Goals: A. Ibrahimović (63'), L. Tober (70'), L. Čatak (82').

The match was played at Möslestadion in Freiburg im Breisgau.

Freiburg U19 vs Bayern München U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Freiburg U19 2–1 Bayern München U19