Bayern München U19 4–1 Freiburg U19: Result & Stats

Bayern München U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Freiburg U19

F. Krätzig 90+4'

G. Mamedova 83' (pen), 54'

Y. Kabadayı 70'

L. Bega 80'

8/14/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 1FC Bayern Campus Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Bayern München U1949%

×Draw21%

Freiburg U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern München U19Expected goals in this matchFreiburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.64

Bayern München U19

2.13

Freiburg U19

1.64

Bayern München U19 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 67 away

2.58

creates per match

1.76

1.52

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Bayern München U19

2.58

Freiburg U19

1.76

allows per match

Bayern München U19

1.52

Freiburg U19

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Freiburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern München U19 ↓

Freiburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Bayern München U19 or draw

70%

Bayern München U19 or Freiburg U19

79%

Draw or Freiburg U19

51%

Winning margin

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

29%

Freiburg U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

88%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

63%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

35%

Freiburg U19 1+ goals

81%

Freiburg U19 2+ goals

49%

Freiburg U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern München U19 at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.52 · 73 matches

Freiburg U19 away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.69 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern München U19 attack 2.58 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.13

Freiburg U19 attack 1.76 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bayern München U19 scores more

49%

level

21%

Freiburg U19 scores more

30%

Bayern München U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bayern München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

J. Ribeiro← D. Au Yeong

53'

M. Wörner← A. Moutassime

54'

G. Mamedova

60'

M. Sanyang← P. Wanner

65'

L. Bega← T. Mühlethaler

70'

Y. Kabadayı

75'

D. Jonathans← M. Wenig

78'

F. Krätzig← Y. Kabadayı

80'

L. Bega

83'

G. MamedovaPenalty

90'

B. Neziri← A. Ibrahimović

90+4'

F. Krätzig

Bayern

Freiburg

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Kabadayı

⚽2

Mamedova

Manager: D. Galm

60'▲M. Sanyang←▼P. Wanner

75'▲D. Jonathans←▼M. Wenig

78'▲F. Krätzig←▼Y. Kabadayı

90'▲B. Neziri←▼A. Ibrahimović

Bayern München U19 substitutes

SanyangJonathansKrätzigNeziriDibraniMorrisonDressel

Manager: F. Valente

46'▲J. Ribeiro←▼D. Au Yeong

53'▲M. Wörner←▼A. Moutassime

65'▲L. Bega←▼T. Mühlethaler

Freiburg U19 substitutes

RibeiroWörnerBegaEchnerCapitaoMackBirk