Freiburg U19 1–1 Astoria Walldorf U19

Freiburg U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Astoria Walldorf U19

M. Baur 25'

J. Boziaris 32'

12/4/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 12Möslestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Freiburg U1956%

×Draw20%

Astoria Walldorf U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Freiburg U19Expected goals in this matchAstoria Walldorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.43

Freiburg U19

2.29

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.43

Freiburg U19 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 23 away

2.42

creates per match

1.26

1.60

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Freiburg U19

2.42

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.26

allows per match

Freiburg U19

1.60

Astoria Walldorf U19

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Freiburg U19+0.00on par

Astoria Walldorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburg U19 ↓

Astoria Walldorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Freiburg U19 or draw

76%

Freiburg U19 or Astoria Walldorf U19

80%

Draw or Astoria Walldorf U19

44%

Winning margin

Freiburg U19 wins by 2+

35%

Astoria Walldorf U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Freiburg U19 1+ goals

90%

Freiburg U19 2+ goals

66%

Freiburg U19 3+ goals

40%

Astoria Walldorf U19 1+ goals

76%

Astoria Walldorf U19 2+ goals

42%

Astoria Walldorf U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Astoria Walldorf U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburg U19 at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.60 · 57 matches

Astoria Walldorf U19 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburg U19 attack 2.42 + Astoria Walldorf U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.29

Astoria Walldorf U19 attack 1.26 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Freiburg U19 scores more

56%

level

20%

Astoria Walldorf U19 scores more

24%

Freiburg U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Freiburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

M. Baur

32'

J. Boziaris

63'

V. Kim← J. Boziaris

69'

J. Laboard← F. Wagner

73'

M. Manegold← S. Belvari

81'

A. Jogerst← G. Pellegrino

81'

J. Ribeiro← D. Au Yeong

85'

E. Mehr← L. Safranek

89'

L. Bega← R. Pfauser

Freiburg

Astoria

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: F. Valente

81'▲A. Jogerst←▼G. Pellegrino

81'▲J. Ribeiro←▼D. Au Yeong

89'▲L. Bega←▼R. Pfauser

Freiburg U19 substitutes

JogerstRibeiroBegaEchnerCapitaoMackHülsenbusch

Manager: Roberto Pinto

63'▲V. Kim←▼J. Boziaris

69'▲J. Laboard←▼F. Wagner

73'▲M. Manegold←▼S. Belvari

85'▲E. Mehr←▼L. Safranek

Astoria Walldorf U19 substitutes

KimLaboardManegoldMehrHilkeGainey