Astoria Walldorf U19 1–2 Freiburg U19

Astoria Walldorf U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Freiburg U19

L. Marx 19'

M. Wörner 43'

L. Čatak 36'

3/30/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - Preliminary Round - 1Kunstrasenplatz FCA Walldorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Astoria Walldorf U1928%

×Draw20%

Freiburg U1952%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Astoria Walldorf U19Expected goals in this matchFreiburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

2.28

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.64

Freiburg U19

2.28

Freiburg U19 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 59 away

1.65

creates per match

1.73

2.83

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.65

Freiburg U19

1.73

allows per match

Astoria Walldorf U19

2.83

Freiburg U19

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Astoria Walldorf U19+0.00on par

Freiburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Astoria Walldorf U19 ↓

Freiburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Astoria Walldorf U19 or draw

48%

Astoria Walldorf U19 or Freiburg U19

80%

Draw or Freiburg U19

72%

Winning margin

Astoria Walldorf U19 wins by 2+

13%

Freiburg U19 wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Astoria Walldorf U19 1+ goals

81%

Astoria Walldorf U19 2+ goals

49%

Astoria Walldorf U19 3+ goals

23%

Freiburg U19 1+ goals

90%

Freiburg U19 2+ goals

66%

Freiburg U19 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Astoria Walldorf U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Astoria Walldorf U19 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.83 · 23 matches

Freiburg U19 away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.63 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Astoria Walldorf U19 attack 1.65 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.64

Freiburg U19 attack 1.73 + Astoria Walldorf U19 defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Astoria Walldorf U19 scores more

28%

level

20%

Freiburg U19 scores more

52%

Freiburg U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Freiburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

L. Marx

36'

L. Čatak

43'

M. Wörner

46'

J. Thunert← B. Hetemi

46'

J. Vonier← J. Jörns

46'

N. Wannemacher← A. Salihu

46'

A. Echner← L. Marino

62'

U. Söylemez← L. Faßmann

63'

A. Ketterer← M. Wörner

63'

J. Wensing← D. Amegnaglo

71'

Y. Sturm← L. Tober

73'

A. Dönmez← L. Kritter

76'

A. Jogerst← L. Čatak

Astoria

Freiburg

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Wörner

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Roberto Pinto

46'▲J. Thunert←▼B. Hetemi

46'▲J. Vonier←▼J. Jörns

46'▲N. Wannemacher←▼A. Salihu

62'▲U. Söylemez←▼L. Faßmann

73'▲A. Dönmez←▼L. Kritter

Astoria Walldorf U19 substitutes

ThunertVonierWannemacherSöylemezDönmezWagner

Manager: F. Valente

46'▲A. Echner←▼L. Marino

63'▲A. Ketterer←▼M. Wörner

63'▲J. Wensing←▼D. Amegnaglo

71'▲Y. Sturm←▼L. Tober

76'▲A. Jogerst←▼L. Čatak

Freiburg U19 substitutes

EchnerKettererWensingSturmJogerstEßlingerPodlich

U19 Bundesliga: Astoria Walldorf U19 1–2 Freiburg U19

Freiburg U19 beat Astoria Walldorf U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on March 30, 2023.

Goals: L. Marx (19'), L. Čatak (36'), M. Wörner (43').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz FCA Walldorf in Walldorf.

Astoria Walldorf U19 vs Freiburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Astoria Walldorf U19 1–2 Freiburg U19