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Freiburg U19 vs 1860 München U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Freiburg U19
Freiburg U19
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
1860 München U19
1860 München U19
Z. Rauch 56'
E. Ouhssakou 39'
B. Kawele 90'
M. Tekin 24', 18'
E. Karakoc 7'
8/9/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 2Möslestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Freiburg U1951%
×Draw20%
1860 München U1928%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freiburg U19
2.26
1860 München U19
1.65

Freiburg U19 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 54 away

creates per match

Freiburg U19
2.44
1860 München U19
1.70

allows per match

Freiburg U19
1.59
1860 München U19
2.09

finishing

Freiburg U19+0.00on par
1860 München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburg U19 ↓

1860 München U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Freiburg U19 or draw
72%
Freiburg U19 or 1860 München U19
80%
Draw or 1860 München U19
49%

Winning margin

Freiburg U19 wins by 2+
31%
1860 München U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Freiburg U19 1+ goals
89%
Freiburg U19 2+ goals
66%
Freiburg U19 3+ goals
39%
1860 München U19 1+ goals
81%
1860 München U19 2+ goals
49%
1860 München U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)
64%
1860 München U19 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburg U19 at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

1860 München U19 away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.09 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburg U19 attack 2.44 + 1860 München U19 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.26

1860 München U19 attack 1.70 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Freiburg U19 scores more
51%
level
20%
1860 München U19 scores more
28%

Freiburg U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Freiburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
E. Karakoc
18'
M. Tekin
24'
M. Tekin
39'
E. Ouhssakou
56'
Z. Rauch
90'
B. Kawele
Freiburg
1860
J. Wiedensohler
Manager: J. Wiedensohler
J. Schittenhelm
Manager: J. Schittenhelm

Match Recap: Freiburg U19 vs 1860 München U19

1860 München U19 beat Freiburg U19 4-2 in U19 Bundesliga on August 9, 2025.

Goals: E. Karakoc (7'), M. Tekin (18', 24'), E. Ouhssakou (39'), Z. Rauch (56'), B. Kawele (90').

The match was played at Möslestadion in Freiburg im Breisgau.