Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

1860 München U19 vs Freiburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

1860 München U19
1860 München U19
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Freiburg U19
Freiburg U19
2/8/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

1860 München U1939%
×Draw23%
Freiburg U1938%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1860 München U19
1.73
Freiburg U19
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 67 away

creates per match

1860 München U19
1.76
Freiburg U19
1.76

allows per match

1860 München U19
1.64
Freiburg U19
1.69

finishing

1860 München U19+0.00on par
Freiburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1860 München U19 ↓

Freiburg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

1860 München U19 or draw
62%
1860 München U19 or Freiburg U19
77%
Draw or Freiburg U19
61%

Winning margin

1860 München U19 wins by 2+
20%
Freiburg U19 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

1860 München U19 1+ goals
82%
1860 München U19 2+ goals
52%
1860 München U19 3+ goals
25%
Freiburg U19 1+ goals
82%
Freiburg U19 2+ goals
51%
Freiburg U19 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

1860 München U19 (draw refunded)
51%
Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1860 München U19 at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.64 · 55 matches

Freiburg U19 away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.69 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1860 München U19 attack 1.76 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.73

Freiburg U19 attack 1.76 + 1860 München U19 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

1860 München U19 scores more
39%
level
23%
Freiburg U19 scores more
38%

1860 München U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "1860 München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

1860
Freiburg
J. Schittenhelm
Manager: J. Schittenhelm
J. Wiedensohler
Manager: J. Wiedensohler

U19 Bundesliga: 1860 München U19 0–2 Freiburg U19

Freiburg U19 beat 1860 München U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 8, 2026.