Freialdenhoven 1–4 Eintracht Hohkeppel

Freialdenhoven

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Eintracht Hohkeppel

8/13/2023

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 1Sportanlage Ederener Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Freialdenhoven32%

×Draw23%

Eintracht Hohkeppel45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FreialdenhovenExpected goals in this matchEintracht Hohkeppel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.74

Freialdenhoven

1.42

Eintracht Hohkeppel

1.74

Eintracht Hohkeppel creates 23% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 43 away

1.45

creates per match

1.91

1.57

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Freialdenhoven

1.45

Eintracht Hohkeppel

1.91

allows per match

Freialdenhoven

1.57

Eintracht Hohkeppel

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Freialdenhoven+0.00on par

Eintracht Hohkeppel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freialdenhoven ↓

Eintracht Hohkeppel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Freialdenhoven or draw

55%

Freialdenhoven or Eintracht Hohkeppel

77%

Draw or Eintracht Hohkeppel

68%

Winning margin

Freialdenhoven wins by 2+

14%

Eintracht Hohkeppel wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Freialdenhoven 1+ goals

76%

Freialdenhoven 2+ goals

41%

Freialdenhoven 3+ goals

17%

Eintracht Hohkeppel 1+ goals

82%

Eintracht Hohkeppel 2+ goals

52%

Eintracht Hohkeppel 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Freialdenhoven (draw refunded)

41%

Eintracht Hohkeppel (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freialdenhoven at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

Eintracht Hohkeppel away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freialdenhoven attack 1.45 + Eintracht Hohkeppel defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Eintracht Hohkeppel attack 1.91 + Freialdenhoven defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Freialdenhoven scores more

32%

level

23%

Eintracht Hohkeppel scores more

45%

Eintracht Hohkeppel at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Eintracht Hohkeppel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff