Eintracht Hohkeppel 4–1 Freialdenhoven

Eintracht Hohkeppel

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Freialdenhoven

5/14/2023

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 25Hohkeppel Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Eintracht Hohkeppel62%

×Draw18%

Freialdenhoven20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht HohkeppelExpected goals in this matchFreialdenhoven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

1.39

Eintracht Hohkeppel

2.52

Freialdenhoven

1.39

Eintracht Hohkeppel creates 81% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 51 away

3.38

creates per match

1.75

1.02

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Eintracht Hohkeppel

3.38

Freialdenhoven

1.75

allows per match

Eintracht Hohkeppel

1.02

Freialdenhoven

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Hohkeppel+0.00on par

Freialdenhoven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Hohkeppel ↓

Freialdenhoven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Eintracht Hohkeppel or draw

80%

Eintracht Hohkeppel or Freialdenhoven

82%

Draw or Freialdenhoven

38%

Winning margin

Eintracht Hohkeppel wins by 2+

40%

Freialdenhoven wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Eintracht Hohkeppel 1+ goals

92%

Eintracht Hohkeppel 2+ goals

71%

Eintracht Hohkeppel 3+ goals

45%

Freialdenhoven 1+ goals

75%

Freialdenhoven 2+ goals

40%

Freialdenhoven 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Hohkeppel (draw refunded)

75%

Freialdenhoven (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Hohkeppel at home — creates 3.38, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

Freialdenhoven away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.67 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Hohkeppel attack 3.38 + Freialdenhoven defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.52

Freialdenhoven attack 1.75 + Eintracht Hohkeppel defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Eintracht Hohkeppel scores more

62%

level

18%

Freialdenhoven scores more

20%

Eintracht Hohkeppel at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Eintracht Hohkeppel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff