Freialdenhoven 0–7 Düren Merzenich: Result & Stats

Freialdenhoven

FT

0 – 7

HT: 0 – 3

Düren Merzenich

5/22/2022

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 31Sportanlage Ederener Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Freialdenhoven30%

×Draw23%

Düren Merzenich47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FreialdenhovenExpected goals in this matchDüren Merzenich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.80

Freialdenhoven

1.39

Düren Merzenich

1.80

Düren Merzenich creates 29% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 33 away

1.45

creates per match

2.03

1.57

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Freialdenhoven

1.45

Düren Merzenich

2.03

allows per match

Freialdenhoven

1.57

Düren Merzenich

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Freialdenhoven+0.00on par

Düren Merzenich+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freialdenhoven ↓

Düren Merzenich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Freialdenhoven or draw

53%

Freialdenhoven or Düren Merzenich

77%

Draw or Düren Merzenich

70%

Winning margin

Freialdenhoven wins by 2+

13%

Düren Merzenich wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Freialdenhoven 1+ goals

75%

Freialdenhoven 2+ goals

40%

Freialdenhoven 3+ goals

16%

Düren Merzenich 1+ goals

83%

Düren Merzenich 2+ goals

54%

Düren Merzenich 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Freialdenhoven (draw refunded)

39%

Düren Merzenich (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freialdenhoven at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

Düren Merzenich away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.33 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freialdenhoven attack 1.45 + Düren Merzenich defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Düren Merzenich attack 2.03 + Freialdenhoven defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Freialdenhoven scores more

30%

level

23%

Düren Merzenich scores more

47%

Düren Merzenich at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Düren Merzenich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff