Düren Merzenich 2–0 Freialdenhoven: Result & Stats

Düren Merzenich

FT

2 – 0

Freialdenhoven

11/7/2021

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 14Westkampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Düren Merzenich56%

×Draw20%

Freialdenhoven24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Düren MerzenichExpected goals in this matchFreialdenhoven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.44

Düren Merzenich

2.30

Freialdenhoven

1.44

Düren Merzenich creates 60% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

2.94

creates per match

1.75

1.12

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Düren Merzenich

2.94

Freialdenhoven

1.75

allows per match

Düren Merzenich

1.12

Freialdenhoven

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Düren Merzenich+0.00on par

Freialdenhoven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Düren Merzenich ↓

Freialdenhoven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Düren Merzenich or draw

76%

Düren Merzenich or Freialdenhoven

80%

Draw or Freialdenhoven

44%

Winning margin

Düren Merzenich wins by 2+

35%

Freialdenhoven wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Düren Merzenich 1+ goals

90%

Düren Merzenich 2+ goals

67%

Düren Merzenich 3+ goals

40%

Freialdenhoven 1+ goals

76%

Freialdenhoven 2+ goals

42%

Freialdenhoven 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Düren Merzenich (draw refunded)

71%

Freialdenhoven (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Düren Merzenich at home — creates 2.94, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

Freialdenhoven away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.67 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Düren Merzenich attack 2.94 + Freialdenhoven defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.30

Freialdenhoven attack 1.75 + Düren Merzenich defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Düren Merzenich scores more

56%

level

20%

Freialdenhoven scores more

24%

Düren Merzenich at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Düren Merzenich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff