Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Freialdenhoven vs Bonner SC — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Freialdenhoven
Freialdenhoven
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Bonner SC
Bonner SC
11/10/2023Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 14Kunstrasenplatz Freialdenhoven

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Freialdenhoven25%
×Draw22%
Bonner SC53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freialdenhoven
1.27
Bonner SC
1.94

Bonner SC creates 53% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 44 away

creates per match

Freialdenhoven
1.45
Bonner SC
2.30

allows per match

Freialdenhoven
1.57
Bonner SC
1.09

finishing

Freialdenhoven+0.00on par
Bonner SC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freialdenhoven ↓

Bonner SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Freialdenhoven or draw
47%
Freialdenhoven or Bonner SC
78%
Draw or Bonner SC
75%

Winning margin

Freialdenhoven wins by 2+
10%
Bonner SC wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Freialdenhoven 1+ goals
72%
Freialdenhoven 2+ goals
36%
Freialdenhoven 3+ goals
14%
Bonner SC 1+ goals
86%
Bonner SC 2+ goals
58%
Bonner SC 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Freialdenhoven (draw refunded)
32%
Bonner SC (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freialdenhoven at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

Bonner SC away — creates 2.30, concedes 1.09 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freialdenhoven attack 1.45 + Bonner SC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bonner SC attack 2.30 + Freialdenhoven defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Freialdenhoven scores more
25%
level
22%
Bonner SC scores more
53%

Bonner SC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bonner SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Freialdenhoven vs Bonner SC

Bonner SC beat Freialdenhoven 2-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Freialdenhoven in Aldenhoven.